Summary

Description

Abstract: A CPC forecaster (from a rotating schedule of 5 as of August 2013) creates the Seasonal Drought Outlook map and narratives. The map, produced using GIS, shows where current drought areas are expected to improve, be removed, or persist with intensity, as well as new areas where drought may develop, at the end of the forecast period. The current drought areas are obtained from the most recent weekly U.S. Drought Monitor where drought is considered D1 (moderate drought) or worse. There are two narratives: a brief, general summary and a detailed, regional technical discussion that describes the thought process, forecast tools used, and confidence for each region on the map. These outlook products apply to the following 3-month period from the date of issue. Originally produced once a month on the third Thursday of each month, the SDOs were changed to twice a month in June 2007 (initial SDO third Thursday of month, updated SDO first Thursday of next month). Since June 30, 2013, however, the SDO is now produced once a month on the third Thursday. The forecast applies to all 50 states of the United States plus Puerto Rico.